In August 2020, the Government’s “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme went live, meaning every Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday from the 3rd to 31st August, participating restaurants offered diners a 50% discount to eat or drink in, up to a maximum of £10 each. The goal of the scheme was simple: to encourage consumers to begin spending again at restaurants that had been left empty during the height of the pandemic.
As rumblings of increased restrictions begin to grace the newspaper front pages once again, we look at how this never-seen-before scheme impacted restaurant spending overall, and investigate whether it accomplished its objectives. Powered by our own data, we teamed up with Lumio to analyse and explore restaurant spending in August.
Crunching numbers
May 2020 saw the biggest hit in restaurant spending, with total spend for the month sitting at a whopping -62.28% below the 2019 figure. June 2020 saw improvements, with the difference reducing to -41.63% compared to June 2019. August saw the smallest difference between the 2020 and 2019 figures, with August 2020 total restaurant spend sitting at ‘only’ -26% below 2019. The overall trend shows restaurant spend is indeed recovering compared to earlier this year. But can we attribute this increased restaurant spending entirely to the Eat Out To Help Out scheme?
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The data shows that diners spent up to 6 times more on Mondays in August than weekends - something not typically seen in other years - so it would be reasonable to assume this being a direct result of the scheme, at least in part. However, fears that weekend business would be shunned in place of weekday bookings also proved unfounded, as bookings overall have grown consistently, with meal bookings not linked to the Eat Out To Help Out scheme picking up too. The Economist comments that ‘this suggests trade will not return to its pre-scheme doldrums once “eat out” comes to an end on August 31st. In the week to August 25th, according to OpenTable’s data, bookings in Britain were up by 31% year-on-year, compared with 21% in Germany, which handled the pandemic well, and a drop of 49% in America, which did not.’ With statistics like this, are we seeing the first tendrils of increased consumer confidence?
Many behavioural scientists and economists would argue that success is about more than just numbers. Indeed, the September data will be incredibly illuminating in bringing further clarity to how much of the increased August spending in the restaurant category compared to spring was down to the scheme itself, or increased confidence overall. With restaurants facing the threat of increasing restrictions once again - along with colder weather, deferred rent payments landing, capacity limits, curfews and an end to the furlough scheme - we can only hope that the boost from Eat Out To Help Out has bolstered both consumer confidence in eating out, and the balance books for the restaurants who so desperately need it. In fact, some restaurants found the Eat Out To Help Out scheme such a boost, they’re going to pick up part of the bill themselves going forward, now the scheme has ended. Find out just some of the participating restaurants below.
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The events of 2020 have impacted consumer spending in a way never seen before. From travel and eating out, to the way we make payments, the financial ramifications of the COVID-19 outbreak have been far-reaching. Explore the data further by visiting our Spending Tracker, or get in touch to find out how Moneyhub's Open Finance technology can help your business uncover unique customer insight, to support you in developing bespoke products and solutions.